| Grade | Period | Physical (kbbls) | Paper/Hedge (kbbls) | NET | What it means | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | May-26 | +1,000 | โ1,000 | 0 | Bought 1M bbls, hedged 1M bbls | No action |
| WTI | Jun-26 | +500 | โ500 | 0 | Bought 500k bbls, fully hedged | No action |
| WCS | Jun-26 | +300 | 0 | +300 | Bought 300k WCS, NOT hedged yet | Hedge now! |
| Brent | May-26 | โ400 | +400 | 0 | Sold 400k Brent, hedged long | No action |
| Line item | $/bbl | On 800k bbls | How it's derived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale price (revenue) | +$83.95 | +$67,160,000 | Agreed sale diff +$1.45 ร WTI avg $82.50 |
| Purchase price (cost) | โ$83.70 | โ$66,960,000 | Your buy diff +$1.20 ร WTI avg $82.50 |
| Gross trading margin | +$0.25 | +$200,000 | Sale diff โ buy diff = $1.45 โ $1.20 |
| Pipeline tariff | โ$0.35 | โ$280,000 | Fixed fee per bbl to move oil in pipe |
| Quality adjustment | โ$0.05 | โ$40,000 | Buyer deducts for slight quality diff |
| Financing cost | โ$0.09 | โ$72,000 | Cost of borrowing to fund inventory |
| Inspection/demurrage | โ$0.00 | โ$15,000 | Ship waiting fees + inspection charges |
| NET COMMERCIAL MARGIN | โ$0.24 | โ$207,000 | LOSING trade after costs |
| Component | Formula | What it tells you | Act when... |
|---|---|---|---|
| DV01 | Open bbls ร $1 | P&L change per $1 diff move | Too large vs limit |
| VaR (95%) | DV01 ร daily vol ร 1.65 | Worst normal day loss | Above 80% of limit |
| Stress test | Open bbls ร shock move | Extreme scenario loss | Loss exceeds monthly target |
| Limits | All above vs approved caps | Are you within rules? | Any limit above 95% |